Refugees of the formerly developed countries...
John Robb's excellent Global Guerillas blog describes the early adapters to the brave new world of "political failure, economic depression, financial panics, rampant corruption/criminality, and violence" who are voting with their feet. A "flight to safety" from the failing dollar, according to the Sovereign Man site. So we have guns and butter on the one hand, and capital flight on the other. A veritable self-fulfilling prophecy.
Next is circle the wagons, and gut-shoot'em at the border. Do these scenarios run history in reverse? Cumulating in what, slavery? Yikes. Take a stand, folks. Make your communities as resilient as they can be. To begin, we need to understand how resilient they can be. What are our fall-back positions for food, energy, health care, and other necessities? Are we investing in the fundamentals? No more running.Amplify’d from globalguerrillas.typepad.com
Had the opportunity to give the keynote at the Sovereign Man conference in Panama last week. VERY cool conference (although it sold out in 24 hours, it's unlikely to be repeated anytime soon). The topic of the conference: methods for hedging sovereign risk.
The thought that kept going through my mind as I gave my talk to the 350 smart/successful people in the audience: These people in front of me are just the start of a flood. Early movers. People that have seen the long run stagnation and recently accelerating decline of western middle classes as just the start of something much worse -- political failure, economic depression, financial panics, rampant corruption/criminality, and violence.
In other words, they were the first real refugees of the formerly developed countries to the north.
The Collapse of Complex Institutions
Borrowed from the Committee on Public Safety wholesale, with apologies. It's too rich to summarize. All I can say is that if this interests you, subscribe to the RSS feed for Joseph Fouche's blog, and strap in! It's going to be a wild ride.
It's interesting to look at current events through this lens. Never mind if the numbering is messed up - just go to the original source.Amplify’d from committeeofpublicsafety.wordpress.com
A riff on David Ronfeldt’s Tribe-Institution-Market-Network framework and its possible relationship with Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies mixed with a grab bag of ideas good, bad, and indifferent:
- The tribal form focuses on interaction, the realm of tactics.
- The institutional form focuses on control, the realm of strategy.
- The market form focuses on dividing power, the realm of politics.
- The network form focuses on prioritizing purpose, the realm of culture.
- From time to time, certain tribes win control over power through the market and congeal along a network of similar purpose into institutions.
- A new institution is a particular reconciliation of power, control, and purpose based on a particular shared strategic equilibrium.
- Strategy is a sort of institution-wide coup d’oeil, a largely tacit, largely contingent, and somewhat explicit orientation. When a strategy is in equilibrium, it’s been called a political formula, asabiyah, paradigm, stimergy, Zeitgeist, a myth, or creed.
- An institution deals with other social forms outside in the market and along the network and with the tribal, market, and networked centers of gravity within it.
- Social forms within an institution become different, now co centers of gravity.
- Actual interaction with external or internal social forms happens on a tribal and tactical scale.
- Friction builds within an institution as internal centers of gravity shift between the competing pull of the tacit, contingent, and the correlation of power with external social forms shifts.
- An institution’s path from power to control to purpose shifts from the efficient tacit path to the less efficient explicit path.
- In response to friction, institutional centers of gravity shift from an institutional strategic orientation to tribal tactical decision-making.
- Friction drive internal centers of gravity toward making what started as strategic and tacit ever more tactical and explicit.
- This effort reinforces the more visible tactical manifestations of the original strategy and not those less visible parts of the strategy that past institutional success was actually built upon.
- Driving the tacit into the explicit generates even more friction by increasing institutional complexity.
- Increasingly explicit decision-making imposes more strain on the information processing capacity of an institution compared to the original, and more efficient, tacit orientation, consuming more and more institutional power.
- The original institutional strategy reaches its culminating point and begins breaking down.
- The response to tacit strategy breaking down: more explicit tribal tactical decision-making.
- Diminishing returns on the original strategic tacit orientation set in. The easy becomes more difficult. More power is consumed for less return.
- Complexity and friction become overwhelming. The recommended cure: more explicit tactical decision-making.
- Strategic inertia sets in since the negative object of defense is stronger than the positive object of offense.
- Tribes begin to opt out of the increasingly burdensome institution, seeking mental relief from the mental effort of the explicit by reverting to a simpler tribal form.
- Entropy grows as crisis destroys the last embers of the original tacit strategic equilibrium.
- An institution ultimately breaks down into competing and unharmonious explicit tribal centers of gravity where once there was a cooperative and harmonious single institutional center of gravity.
- Survivors of a failing institution don’t understand how an institution originally succeeded and don’t understand how it ultimately failed. They only see the explicit, can’t fathom the contingent, and barely see the tacit.
- Institutional knowledge is dispersed back into the network from which it originally emerged, remaining stored there if the network is of sufficient scale and diversity.
- If enough knowledge is dispersed through the network, the level of complexity an institution can process while drawing on the market and networks its embedded within may ratchet upwards in spite of individual institutional collapses.
- Networks and markets may also enable revival of moribund institutions by producing fortuitous shifts in an institution’s strategic orientation that better allow it to reconcile power, control, and purpose.
- Networks and markets have the potential to spawn new institutions if earlier institutions have a complete institutional breakdown.
