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System disruption, netwar & development
BBC reports today of a caution issued by the UK's Royal Academy of Engineering that the country may be over-reliant on satnav systems. The failure of satellite navigation can result in system disruption because there are no backups. This has the potential to interrupt emergency services, law enforcement, and activities as mundane as stocking the grocery shelves (one of my favorite headlines of all time read "Nine Meals from Anarchy"*, from the Manchester Guardian concerning the challenges of stocking inner city grocery shelves during the blizzards of the winter of 2009-2010, an example of another kind of system disruption, from weather). Satnav systems could fail for reasons completely out of human control, such as solar flares.
This is an example of vulnerability in a critical control point in the distribution of information or materials in a tightly integrated system. Disruption at a control point can propagate throughout a system, causing cascading failure. This was the big concern of Y2K. Examples of the phenomenon include the great power outages of NE North America in 2003 and South America (Brazil and Paraguay) of 2009. John Arquilla, a defense analyst with the US Naval Postgraduate School, coined with co-author David Ronfeldt, the term "netwar" to describe how networked cells (e.g., of insurgents) can disrupt and defeat much larger hierarchically organized forces, again by attacking critical control points and causing cascading failure. In response Arquilla argues persuasively for new tactical approaches based upon network design, with redundancy, mobility, autonomy of cells, and use of strategic communication to help create an enabling environment (public diplomacy to counter propaganda). He calls this formulation "outpost+outreach." I can see many parallels here with other threads in the debate about the future. These threads share the characteristic of eschewing linearity, exemplified by hierarchical "command and control" structures in favor of networks of autonomous units.** The "good governance" narrative, for example, predicated on public participation, and promoting access to information, transparency in decision-making processes, and involvement of all stakeholders in decisions. The "information and communications technology revolution" narrative revels in the evolution of communication from "one to one" and and "one to many" to "many to many" through social networking. Social networking, it would appear, is antithetical to command and control systems, such that despotic regimes are now faced with a stark choice - to share power or turn off the lights. Over coming days, I want to consider ways in which the network approach applies to international development. Is the war on poverty being left behind - a vestige of linear thinking in a networked world? Is it evolving in ways that the old school doesn't recognize? Or is the netwar on poverty in full swing? In other words, what can we learn from the warning of the Royal Academy of Engineering about vulnerability of key control points, and how can we apply that to processes like certification.* The expression was coined earlier by Lord Cameron of Dillington, a farmer and first head of the UK Countryside Commission, according to the Daily Mail.
** In the United States, my home country, the tension between "command and control" and autonomous units, was present at the founding of the nation. The correct balance of local control and national authority remains a hotly debated topic.
-Amplify’d from www.bbc.co.uk
The UK may have become dangerously over-reliant on satellite-navigation signals, according to a report from the Royal Academy of Engineering.
Use of space-borne positioning and timing data is now widespread, in everything from freight movement to synchronisation of computer networks.
The academy fears that too many applications have little or no back-up were these signals to go down.
Dr Martyn Thomas, who chaired the group that wrote the report, told BBC News: "We're not saying that the sky is about to fall in; we're not saying there's a calamity around the corner.
"What we're saying is that there is a growing interdependence between systems that people think are backing each other up. And it might well be that if a number these systems fail simultaneously, it will cause commercial damage or just conceivably loss of life. This is wholly avoidable."
